3 year predictions

[MBKF1 91]

On the Autosport forums a few years ago, a thread went up asking people to predict what they saw for the future of F1 teams in the next decade. Looking back 6 years later, it's amazing to see just how wrong many of the predictions were, and how mad the craziest predictions were, even though they turned out to be completely true.

So how about we do it ourselves here, but make more detailed predictions for the next 3 years (2017-2019), and it would be amazing to come back in 3 years time to see how right or wrong we were.

Some of these are outrageous predictions, but who knows what might happen! I'm probably gonna go into a helluva lot of detail, so forgive me.
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2017
- Red Bull will have a huge aerodynamic advantage, which will be so strong it will just beat the power advantage of Mercedes. Ricciardo beats Hamilton and Verstappen to the title.
- McLaren score occasional podiums and leapfrog ahead of Ferrari.
- Williams and Force India struggle and are beaten by Renault and Toro Rosso, who are regular points scorers.
- Ocon comfortably has the upper hand over Sergio Perez at Force India.
- Palmer disappoints at Renault.
- Yet again, Sainz has a stellar season at Toro Rosso. Kvyat is replaced mid-season by Pierre Gasly.
- Verstappen impresses, but his lack of consistency means he is beaten by team mate Ricciardo.
- Bottas struggles in his year at Mercedes and is comfortably beaten by Hamilton.
- Mid season, Sauber are bought by Ferrari and for 2018 become 'Forza Rossa', the effective B-team for Ferrari.
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2018

- Bottas is replaced at Mercedes by Esteban Ocon and therefore returns to Williams, replacing the now retired Felipe Massa. Ocon is replaced at Force India by Pascal Wehrlein.
- Raikkonen retires at the end of 2017, and his Ferrari seat is taken by Carlos Sainz.
- With Sainz and Kvyat out of Toro Rosso, they are taken by Pierre Gasly and Niko Kari, after an impressive 2017 GP3 campaign.
- Alonso remains for one more season at McLaren, after good progress in 2017.
- Palmer replaced at Renault by fellow Brit and rookie, Jack Aitken, after winning the 2017 GP3 championship.
- With Sauber now called Forza Rossa, Ferrari give two of their young drivers, GP2 champion Charles Leclerc, and Antonio Giovinazzi, the chance to race in 2018.

Teams and Drivers
Red Bull: Daniel Ricciardo and Max Verstappen
Mercedes: Lewis Hamilton and Esteban Ocon
McLaren: Stoffel Vandoorne and Fernando Alonso
Ferrari: Sebastian Vettel and Carlos Sainz
Renault: Nico Hulkenberg and Jack Aitken
Toro Rosso: Pierre Gasly and Niko Kari
Force India: Sergio Perez and Pascal Wehrlein
Williams: Lance Stroll and Valtteri Bottas
Haas: Romain Grosjean and Kevin Magnussen
Forza Rossa: Charles Leclerc and Antonio Giovinazzi

- Mercedes catch up to Red Bull on aerodynamics and still with their power advantage, they manage to beat Red Bull. Hamilton wins the title, from Verstappen and Ricciardo.
- McLaren continue to rise, with Vandoorne and Alonso winning the occasional race.
- With Ferrari on the rise again, Sainz has an impressive season, matching Vettel.
- Renault score occasional podiums, Aitken struggles against Hulkenberg in his debut season however.
- Tough year for Toro Rosso with two rookies.
- Leclerc and Giovinazzi impress, both with very strong seasons.
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2019

- Lewis Hamilton makes a shock move from Mercedes to Ferrari, partnering Carlos Sainz.
- Sebastian Vettel takes Lewis Hamilton's place at Mercedes, alongside Esteban Ocon.
- Renault replace Jack Aitken with Romain Grosjean, frustrated from a lack of development at Haas.
- Sergio Perez is frustrated at Force India and moves to Haas, taking Grosjean's seat.
- Kevin Magnussen is booted out of Haas and is replaced by rookie George Russell, who has been put there by Mercedes as a young driver.

Teams and Drivers
Ferrari: Lewis Hamilton and Carlos Sainz
Mercedes: Esteban Ocon and Sebastian Vettel
McLaren: Stoffel Vandoorne and Fernando Alonso
Red Bull: Max Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo
Renault: Nico Hulkenberg and Romain Grosjean
Toro Rosso: Pierre Gasly and Niko Kari
Force India: Pascal Wehrlein and Jack Aitken
Williams: Lance Stroll and Valtteri Bottas
Haas: Sergio Perez and George Russell
Forza Rossa: Charles Leclerc and Antonio Giovinazzi

- McLaren have a superb winter and surprise everyone by becoming the top team, ahead of Red Bull and Ferrari.
- Vandoorne and Alonso battle it out for the title, with Alonso finally getting that 3rd title at the age of 38. He duly retires at the end of the season.
- With Hamilton gone, Mercedes begin their downfall. Vettel takes his time to settle in, and him and Ocon score the odd podium, but can't challenge for wins.
- Hamilton has a solid first season at Ferrari, scoring occasional podiums along with Sainz.
- Renault remain around the 5th place mark.
- Grosjean struggles and retires at the end of the year.
- Russell has a brilliant season and beats Perez comfortably, he will also retire at the end of that season.
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Long term predictions
- Red Bull have a great 2017, winning the championship, but don't win again until 2023/2024. They always remain in the top 3 however.
- McLaren to finally reach the top in 2019. Alonso wins the championship that year and retires, replaced by Lando Norris. Him and Vandoorne battle it out for the 2020 title.
- Mercedes to begin their downfall in 2019. They won't win again until around 2025.
- Ferrari still struggle but finally start winning with Hamilton and Sainz / Leclerc at the start of the 2020s.
- Renault to finally win again around 2022/2023.

2017: Ricciardo, Red Bull
2018: Hamilton, Mercedes
2019: Alonso, McLaren
2020: Vandoorne / Norris, McLaren
2021: Hamilton / Sainz / Leclerc, Ferrari
2022: Hamilton / Sainz / Leclerc, Ferrari
2022: Renault
2023: Red Bull
2024: Red Bull
2025: Mercedes

[coolieboy 0]

Interesting read. I'll keep it a bit more simple. 
2017:
-Hamilton wins WDC
-Ferrari wins constructors over Red Bull, but it will be a close match
- McLaren will leapfrog and finish 4th in the WCC
-Kimi, Alonso and Massa, possibly Vettel and Hamilton retire from F1.

2018:
-halo gets introduced and fans no longer are interested in the sport
-Hamilton goes to NASCAR or Indycar
-Alonso goes to Indycar or Formula E
-Formula E surpasses F1 as the premier league. 
- Red Bull wins WCC by a mile, Ferrari finally pull out of F1 and field teams in Formula E and Indycar
-Ricciardo wins WDC then retires.

2019:
-this year will be all about Verstappen and Red Bull winning everything. 

[VetteIfan 0]

2017:
- Hamilton and Mercedes dominate, amidst one of the most boring seasons in F1 history as the cars can't overtake one another. Red Bull best of the rest. 
- Ferrari have a poor season and Vettel finally explodes at their inability to do anything right. Replaces Bottas at Mercedes, after disappointing performances from the Finn. Arrivabene sacked at Ferrari. 
- McLaren make progress but not enough for Alonso's liking. Sensationally rejoins Renault alongside Hulkenberg. Also paves the way for Button to make good on his contract and return to McLaren. 
- Ferrari sign Carlos Sainz alongside Raikkonen for 2018. 

WDC: Hamilton, Bottas, Ricciardo, Verstappen, Vettel
WCC: Mercedes, Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren, Renault

2018:
- Mercedes win the titles again, but by a smaller margin due to a nuclear rivalry between Hamilton and Vettel which costs them several races. Vettel edges the title, Mercedes offload Hamilton as it's the end of his contract and they realise the two can't co-exist.  
- Hamilton fills the spot of the retiring Raikkonen at Ferrari, despite Ferrari having another poor year and even slipping behind McLaren. Mercedes hire Ricciardo (after he is beaten by Verstappen), believing him and Vettel are compatible after their time at Red Bull. 
- Red Bull replace Ricciardo with Gasly, who spent a year at Toro Rosso after Sainz had joined Ferrari. 
- Alonso endures a disappointing season with Renault, and McLaren have a stronger 2018, winning several races and finish 3rd in the WCC. Alonso retires and goes to Le Mans. 
- Hulkenberg also moves on from Renault, and Ocon/Wehrlein reunite as teammates. 
- Button signs a 1 year extension with McLaren after strong performances, despite losing out to Vandoorne. 

WDC: Vettel, Hamilton, Verstappen, Ricciardo, Vandoorne 
WCC: Mercedes, Red Bull, McLaren, Ferrari, Renault

2019:
- Another new set of rules are unleashed and the Mercedes era of WDC winners is finally over, with Verstappen picking up his first world title for Red Bull.
- Ferrari finally make their long awaited proper return to the front. They win the WCC and Hamilton pushes Verstappen close for the title but misses out by 4 points. 
- Mercedes finish 3rd in the WCC, and with the title not on the line Vettel and Ricciardo manage to get along. 
- Renault and McLaren fight for 4th in the WCC. Renault edges it, and after it seemed as though they made progress in 2018, McLaren slip to 5th. Button duly retires after getting annihilated by Vandoorne. 
- The new set of rules leads to Sauber being bought out by VW who finally see the merit of competing in F1. Set out a plan to be world champions within 4 years, which fails. 

WDC: Verstappen, Hamilton, Sainz, Gasly, Vettel
WCC: Ferrari, Red Bull, Mercedes, Renault, McLaren

[coolieboy 0]

I was watching some F1 from the early 90's...26 cars on the grid...do you think any newcomers will be in F1 in the next 3 years?  I do see Sauber being bought out by a manufacturer, possibly Ford.  I can't see the VW group finding extra funds to join F1 after the VW scandal tough.  But realistically, I think any manufacturer would opt for Formula E over F1 any day. 

[rob91 0]

No manufacturer not currently in F1 will enter under the current engine regulations

[AMSKRR 3]

I'm just going to make some crazy predictions which wont happen, hold tight.

2017 
- The Ferrari, Mercedes and RBR drivers will fight for the title all season, Raikkonen, Bottas and Verstappen will drop off due to either mistakes or reliability. The other 3 will all go to the last race with a chance and it ultimately ends in a Vettel win, the hype was real all along.
- McLaren get sick of Honda and ditch them for 2018. 
- Alonso joins Mercedes for 2018
- Bottas rejoins Williams after Massa retires
- Raikkonen signs for one more year 
- Renault and Williams fight for the best of the rest

WDC: Vettel, Hamilton, Ricciardo, Raikkonen, Verstappen, Bottas
WCC: Ferrari, RBR, Mercedes

2018 
- RBR to gain an upper hand, Ricciardo takes his first title just ahead of Verstappen. Ferrari and Mercedes neck and neck for the next 4 spots every week.
- McLaren, Renault and Williams fight for the next best 
- Raikkonen retires, finally.
- Ferrari hire Verstappen after he falls out with the RB team.
- RB promote Sainz
- Sauber are bought by a constructor like VW or Aston Martin

WDC: Ricciardo, Verstappen, Hamilton, Vettel, Alonso, Raikkonen 
WCC: RBR, Mercedes, Ferrari

2019 
- Mercedes make a step forward and are on a par with RBR, Alonso gets his third title and promptly retires. Vettel is annoyed at the lack of progress since 2017 and switches to McLaren for 2020, who were very close to Ferrari in 2019.
- Ferrari hire Grosjean
- Mercedes hire Hulkenberg to partner Lewis Hamilton

WDC: Alonso, Hamilton, Ricciardo, Sainz, Vettel, Verstappen, 
WCC: Mercedes, RBR, Ferrari, McLaren

Beyond this, Vettel goes on to win one more title with McLaren in 2021 and retires there, later becomming a ping pong player at the Olympics. Hamilton wins a 5th championship before he retires and becomes a a professional chav, Ricciardo wins another and Verstappen goes on to win 3 or 4 titles himself. Sainz remains a solid backup driver in a quick car, like Webber. 

[MBKF1 91]

2017
- Red Bull will have a huge aerodynamic advantage, which will be so strong it will just beat the power advantage of Mercedes. Ricciardo beats Hamilton and Verstappen to the title.
- McLaren score occasional podiums and leapfrog ahead of Ferrari.

Well even just 3 races into the season, I'm well off on these two predictions. Why the hell did I ever think McLaren would jump ahead of Ferrari?!

At the moment, @AMS97KRR seems closest with his predictions!

[Jiggy 5]

AMS is low-key a predicting BEAST.

Probably predicted that this post was 6 characters too short.

[jdonovan74 0]

Since I am late to the party I will jump ahead. 
Rest of 2017:
Mercedes will win the constructors title and Hamilton will win the championship.
Massa is the "best of the rest" finishing in p.7 but Force India finishes 4th in constructors.
McLaren manages just 1 point, on Alonso finishing p.10 at Brazil in the rain.

Constructor points finishing order:
Mercedes
Ferrari
RedBull
Force India
Toro Rosso
Williams
Haas
Renault
Sauber
McLaren



2018:

Off season: Mercedes contacts others to replace Bottas, but Hamilton doesn't accept any of them.
Ferrari wants to replace Kimi so they look at someone who has been using their equipment already at Haas. (Grosjean) Stroll's investment is enough to keep him contracted with Williams but in a reserve/test role, as he returns to F2.

F2 champion and Ferrari Jr driver, Leclerc moves to Haas with Ferrari using the partnership well.

Maldanado secures funding to come back to F1 with Sauber.

Sainz gets frustrated with RBR after they pass on his contract yet again, prompting him to leave the team, but not getting picked up elsewhere.

Driver lineup:
Mercedes: Hamilton, Bottas
Ferrari Vettel, Grosjean
RBR: Ricciardo, Verstappen
Williams: Massa, Wehrlein
Force India: Ocon, Perez
Renault: Hulkenberg, Sirotkin
Haas: Leclerc (after winning F2 title), Magnussen
Sauber: Ericsson, Maldonado
McLaren: Alonso, Vandoorne
Toro Rosso: Kvyat, Gasly

Season:
Mercedes comes with a BRAND NEW car, Very little carried over from the year before in an attempt to once again be the dominant team. This back fires. RedBull becomes the team to beat, but not by much. Verstappen and Ricciardo remain friends even while battling Grosjean and Vettel for the title.

Haas becomes the best of the rest pretty comfortably with Ferrari helping more in exchange for keeping Leclerc in the car. Massa starts to show signs of aging after a stellar 2017 season, getting beaten byt his new teammate, Pascal Wehrlein. Wherlein becomes the only driver not at Ferrari, Mercedes, or Red Bull to score a podium at Monaco after a very good start, and the lack of passing.
However the tight mid-field means every team scores at least 20 points. 

BIG engine rules announced for 2020 or 2021. V6 will stay, but every team will have to run a spec ERS system, reducing costs. Ford, applies for engine supplier role with the FIA and Alfa Romeo applies to enter F1 in 2020

McLaren finds some form back as Honda improves but it is still just a mid-field battle. Alonso again runs the Indy 500. Sainz replaces Alonso for the race, and he runs solid. He replaces him for Baku later in the season as well while Alonso runs the 24 Hours of LeMan.

Vettel wins the title but Red Bull Racing wins the constructors.

Final Constructors:
RedBull
Ferrari
Mercedes
Renault
Haas
McLaren
Force India
Williams
Toro Rosso.
Sauber


2019:


Offseason:
 RBR and Ricciardo have huge contract disputes that are not resolved, but to keep himself in F1 signs a deal with Toro Rosso.

Alonso now making about $60M a year stays with Mclaren-Honda.

Haas picks up Sainz after Magnussen got beat by, then rookie, Leclerc. 

Ocon and Wehrlein starting to get impatient with Mercedes management, but both stick with them for another year with Force India and Williams, respectively. 

Driver lineup:
Ferrari: Vettel, Grosjean
Red Bull: Kvyat, Verstappen
Mercedes: Hamilton, Bottas
Renault: Hulkenberg, Sirotkin
Haas, Sainz, Leclerc
Toro Rosso: Gasly, Ricciardo
Williams: Stroll, Wehrlein
Force India: Ocon, Perez
Sauber: Magnussen, Latifi
McLaren: Alonso. Vandoorne


Season:
Mercedes has it's worst year since returning to F1, admitting early that they have already started on the 2020 engine regulations. 

McLaren makes a huge jump as Vandoorne finds his stride and Honda is now less than 3 MPH off the pace. 

Haas falls down the order citing Ferrari's lack of help to the American outfit.

Stroll has a solid year, keeping pace with the veteran, Wehrlein.

Ocon finally has a year outperforming Perez as Force India is now the best of the rest again.

Haas is the only team not to score points, although finishing 11th 6 times.

Ferrari finally gets their alluded drivers/ and constructors title as Vettel wins the drivers, and Grosjean gets 2nd in a fairly easy fashion over Red Bull.

Final constructors standings: 
Ferrari
RedBull
McLaren
Force India
Renault 
Mercedes
Sauber
Williams
Toro Rosso
Haas

2020:

NEW ENGINE REGS. (Stated above)

Offseason:
Ford reenters the sport, unable to find a team to take on the gamble, they contact Haas giving the fact they already work together in NASCAR.

Alfa Romeo is officially a Ferrari Jr team.

Ocon frustrated after not being picked for the Mercedes seat, leaves the Jr Program and signs with Renault.

Alonso admits he is contemplating retiring from F to focus on getting the Triple Crown.

Bottas gets dumped by Mercedes after Wehrlein forced their hand to promote him or release him.


Driver lineup
Mercedes: Hamilton,  Wehrlein
Ferrari: Vettel, Grosjean
RedBull: Verstappen, Gasly
McLaren: Alonso, Vandoorne
Force India: Magunssen, Perez
Renault: Sirotkin, Ocon
Sauber: Latifi, Ericsson
Williams: Stroll, Bottas
Alfa Romeo: Sainz, Leclerc
Haas: Maini, Rossi
Toro Rosso: Kari, Verschoor

Season: 
Mercedes returns to dominance after being the first to switch to new rules with development.
Ferrari is a solid second, but a ways off Mercedes.

Sauber, and McLaren are starting to get frustrated with Honda because, although they are better, they have had enough time to be th best, but still aren't.

Renault admits it will be a while until their factory team will win a title so they went young with Sirotkin and Ocon.

Ford struggle REALLY bad in their first year back, leaving Haas with 15 total DNFS in 24 races and again, the only team not to score points.

Hamilton wins the title, and Mercedes easily wins the constructors.

Final constructors:

Mercedes
Ferrari
Red Bull
McLaren
Alfa Romeo
Renault
Force India
Williams
Toro Rosso
Sauber
Haas

[jdonovan74 0]

^ I may have gotten a bit out of hand. LMAO

[MBKF1 91]

Suddenly remembered this thread from last year, thought I'd go through my predictions one year later to see what turned out to be true or not...

2017

- Red Bull will have a huge aerodynamic advantage, which will be so strong it will just beat the power advantage of Mercedes. Ricciardo beats Hamilton and Verstappen to the title.
- McLaren score occasional podiums and leapfrog ahead of Ferrari.
- Williams and Force India struggle and are beaten by Renault and Toro Rosso, who are regular points scorers.
- Ocon comfortably has the upper hand over Sergio Perez at Force India.
- Palmer disappoints at Renault.
- Yet again, Sainz has a stellar season at Toro Rosso. Kvyat is replaced mid-season by Pierre Gasly.
- Verstappen impresses, but his lack of consistency means he is beaten by team mate Ricciardo.
- Bottas struggles in his year at Mercedes and is comfortably beaten by Hamilton.
- Mid season, Sauber are bought by Ferrari and for 2018 become 'Forza Rossa', the effective B-team for Ferrari.

Totally wrong on McLaren beating Ferrari, what a ridiculous prediction that was looking back. In general, I got my team order all wrong, but some of the individual inter team battles I got right (Palmer disappointing, Kvyat replaced by Gasly mid season, Verstappen beaten by Ricciardo, Bottas beaten by Hamilton).

I also pretty much correctly predicted Sauber becoming a Ferrari B-team. Not quite a total takeover, but certainly influence.

2018
- Mercedes catch up to Red Bull on aerodynamics and still with their power advantage, they manage to beat Red Bull. Hamilton wins the title, from Verstappen and Ricciardo.

- McLaren continue to rise, with Vandoorne and Alonso winning the occasional race.
- With Ferrari on the rise again, Sainz has an impressive season, matching Vettel. (got this wrong already)
- Renault score occasional podiums, Aitken struggles against Hulkenberg in his debut season however. (wrong too)
- Tough year for Toro Rosso with two rookies.
- Leclerc and Giovinazzi impress, both with very strong seasons.

Lets see how that turns out!

[AMSKRR 3]

Quote

2018 
- RBR to gain an upper hand, Ricciardo takes his first title just ahead of Verstappen. Ferrari and Mercedes neck and neck for the next 4 spots every week.
- McLaren, Renault and Williams fight for the next best 
- Raikkonen retires, finally.
- Ferrari hire Verstappen after he falls out with the RB team.
- RB promote Sainz
- Sauber are bought by a constructor like VW or Aston Martin

WDC: Ricciardo, Verstappen, Hamilton, Vettel, Alonso, Raikkonen 
WCC: RBR, Mercedes, Ferrari

Remembered this just now. Fair to say it was mostly wrong. However I did get Kimi half right I think :p Also that Sauber call was pretty nice. McLaren and Williams did fight in 2018, mainly for last position though, not 7th.

Oh and 2017:

Quote

2017 
- The Ferrari, Mercedes and RBR drivers will fight for the title all season, Raikkonen, Bottas and Verstappen will drop off due to either mistakes or reliability. The other 3 will all go to the last race with a chance and it ultimately ends in a Vettel win, the hype was real all along.
- McLaren get sick of Honda and ditch them for 2018. 
- Alonso joins Mercedes for 2018
- Bottas rejoins Williams after Massa retires
- Raikkonen signs for one more year 
- Renault and Williams fight for the best of the rest

Honda being ditched and Kimi re-signing for a final year at Ferrari. Other than that, Renault and Williams fought for 5th, not 4th. RBR didn't manage to fight for the title. Bottas did not rejoin Williams. 

[MrGnashtastik 3]

Vettel will retire within 3 three years and Kimi will rejoin Ferrari. A man can hope.