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F1 2014 Singapore Grand Prix


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VetteIfan said:
I've just done some basic statistics workings out and here's what I've found.
- Mercedes should probably wrap up the constructors' title next time out at Suzuka
- Only Red Bull can take that constructors' title away from Mercedes
- Hamilton, Rosberg, Ricciardo, Alonso, Vettel and Bottas are the only drivers who can mathematically still win the title
- Marcus Ericsson could win the next five races and finish 4th in the drivers' championship
- Caterham could acheive 1-2's at the next five races and finish 3rd in the constructors' championship
There's 258 points still available and they're 174 ahead of Red Bull. So unless Red Bull have a complete disaster, I'd say it is very unlikely that Mercedes will wrap up the WCC in Suzuka. It's only a matter of time after that though, obviously. 
(5+1) x 43 = 258
479 - 305 = 174
258 - 174 = 84

84 - 43 = 41

41 - 43 = -2
Therefore, Mercedes can win the constructors at Suzuka, providing that they take a maximum score, 43, and Red Bull score no more than 2 pts.
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VetteIfan said:
I've just done some basic statistics workings out and here's what I've found.
- Mercedes should probably wrap up the constructors' title next time out at Suzuka
- Only Red Bull can take that constructors' title away from Mercedes
- Hamilton, Rosberg, Ricciardo, Alonso, Vettel and Bottas are the only drivers who can mathematically still win the title
- Marcus Ericsson could win the next five races and finish 4th in the drivers' championship
- Caterham could acheive 1-2's at the next five races and finish 3rd in the constructors' championship
There's 258 points still available and they're 174 ahead of Red Bull. So unless Red Bull have a complete disaster, I'd say it is very unlikely that Mercedes will wrap up the WCC in Suzuka. It's only a matter of time after that though, obviously. 
(5+1) x 43 = 258
479 - 305 = 174
258 - 174 = 84

84 - 43 = 41

41 - 43 = -2
Therefore, Mercedes can win the constructors at Suzuka, providing that they take a maximum score, 43, and Red Bull score no more than 2 pts.
But that's not likely is it? :p 
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fIsince08 said:
Just a quick point. Rosberg should have a new gearbox for Suzuka as the 5 are up since Silverstone (plus he's allowed a fresh one anyway as he retired). That means this should be his last for the season, so it'll be at the end of its life at Abu Double.

Hamilton, meanwhile, got a new one after Spa. Therefore his is due for renewal after Austin, so it'll be three races fresher than Rosberg's in the finale...
Well that's quite interesting actually. Could be a huge advantage for Hamilton. Can you always get a new transmission if you retire without penalty? So if Rosberg retires at Austin he'd get a new one penalty-free, they'd be on the same terms coming to the end of the season?
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VetteIfan said:
I've just done some basic statistics workings out and here's what I've found.
- Mercedes should probably wrap up the constructors' title next time out at Suzuka
- Only Red Bull can take that constructors' title away from Mercedes
- Hamilton, Rosberg, Ricciardo, Alonso, Vettel and Bottas are the only drivers who can mathematically still win the title
- Marcus Ericsson could win the next five races and finish 4th in the drivers' championship
- Caterham could acheive 1-2's at the next five races and finish 3rd in the constructors' championship
There's 258 points still available and they're 174 ahead of Red Bull. So unless Red Bull have a complete disaster, I'd say it is very unlikely that Mercedes will wrap up the WCC in Suzuka. It's only a matter of time after that though, obviously. 
Aaah, yes, forgot about the double points in Abu Dhabi :/

Stupid rule
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fIsince08 said:
Just a quick point. Rosberg should have a new gearbox for Suzuka as the 5 are up since Silverstone (plus he's allowed a fresh one anyway as he retired). That means this should be his last for the season, so it'll be at the end of its life at Abu Double.

Hamilton, meanwhile, got a new one after Spa. Therefore his is due for renewal after Austin, so it'll be three races fresher than Rosberg's in the finale...
Well that's quite interesting actually. Could be a huge advantage for Hamilton. Can you always get a new transmission if you retire without penalty? So if Rosberg retires at Austin he'd get a new one penalty-free, they'd be on the same terms coming to the end of the season?
Υes but it's 25 points lost to Hamilton so it's not going to happen.
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fIsince08 said:
Just a quick point. Rosberg should have a new gearbox for Suzuka as the 5 are up since Silverstone (plus he's allowed a fresh one anyway as he retired). That means this should be his last for the season, so it'll be at the end of its life at Abu Double.

Hamilton, meanwhile, got a new one after Spa. Therefore his is due for renewal after Austin, so it'll be three races fresher than Rosberg's in the finale...
Well that's quite interesting actually. Could be a huge advantage for Hamilton. Can you always get a new transmission if you retire without penalty? So if Rosberg retires at Austin he'd get a new one penalty-free, they'd be on the same terms coming to the end of the season?
Yes.
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mike96 said:
fIsince08 said:
Just a quick point. Rosberg should have a new gearbox for Suzuka as the 5 are up since Silverstone (plus he's allowed a fresh one anyway as he retired). That means this should be his last for the season, so it'll be at the end of its life at Abu Double.

Hamilton, meanwhile, got a new one after Spa. Therefore his is due for renewal after Austin, so it'll be three races fresher than Rosberg's in the finale...
Well that's quite interesting actually. Could be a huge advantage for Hamilton. Can you always get a new transmission if you retire without penalty? So if Rosberg retires at Austin he'd get a new one penalty-free, they'd be on the same terms coming to the end of the season?
Υes but it's 25 points lost to Hamilton so it's not going to happen.
I get, that I was more just curious about the rule and using an Austin retirement as an example. But even so giving up the 25 points might come to mean very little with double points on the last race. Or if Lewis retires in any of the remaining races.
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VetteIfan said:
I've just done some basic statistics workings out and here's what I've found.
- Mercedes should probably wrap up the constructors' title next time out at Suzuka
- Only Red Bull can take that constructors' title away from Mercedes
- Hamilton, Rosberg, Ricciardo, Alonso, Vettel and Bottas are the only drivers who can mathematically still win the title
- Marcus Ericsson could win the next five races and finish 4th in the drivers' championship
- Caterham could acheive 1-2's at the next five races and finish 3rd in the constructors' championship
There's 258 points still available and they're 174 ahead of Red Bull. So unless Red Bull have a complete disaster, I'd say it is very unlikely that Mercedes will wrap up the WCC in Suzuka. It's only a matter of time after that though, obviously. 
(5+1) x 43 = 258
479 - 305 = 174
258 - 174 = 84

84 - 43 = 41

41 - 43 = -2
Therefore, Mercedes can win the constructors at Suzuka, providing that they take a maximum score, 43, and Red Bull score no more than 2 pts.
So yeah, exactly what I said. Unless Red Bull have a complete disaster, it probably won't happen in Suzuka :p
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I like the current system to be honest. You get given more for winning a grand prix which I think is a good thing, and you get points down to 10th place.
I don't :p It rewards far too many points for a win, and gives DNF's and crashes way too high a chance of deciding who might win a WDC. For me, I'd go with something closer to this.

1st.   15 points.
2nd.  10 points
3rd.   8 points
4th.   7 points
5th.   6 points
6th.   5 points
7th.   4 points
8th.   3 points
9th.   2 points
10th. 1 point
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I like the current system to be honest. You get given more for winning a grand prix which I think is a good thing, and you get points down to 10th place.
I don't :p It rewards far too many points for a win, and gives DNF's and crashes way too high a chance of deciding who might win a WDC. For me, I'd go with something closer to this.

1st.   15 points.
2nd.  10 points
3rd.   8 points
4th.   7 points
5th.   6 points
6th.   5 points
7th.   4 points
8th.   3 points
9th.   2 points
10th. 1 point
I think that's mathematically worse. I've picked up from other people to compare points to the winner's as a percentage, so the current one is:

25  -  18  -  15 -  12 -  10  - 8   -  6  -   4  -  2  - 1
100% 72% 60% 48% 40% 32% 24% 16% 8% 4%

Yours gives:
15  -  10 -   8  -  7  -   6  -  5  -   4  -  3  -   2  -  1
100% 67% 53% 47% 40% 33% 27% 20% 13% 7%

So it benefits lower scores more relatively, but less for 2nd - 5th places.
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I like the current system to be honest. You get given more for winning a grand prix which I think is a good thing, and you get points down to 10th place.
I don't :p It rewards far too many points for a win, and gives DNF's and crashes way too high a chance of deciding who might win a WDC. For me, I'd go with something closer to this.

1st.   15 points.
2nd.  10 points
3rd.   8 points
4th.   7 points
5th.   6 points
6th.   5 points
7th.   4 points
8th.   3 points
9th.   2 points
10th. 1 point
I think that's mathematically worse. I've picked up from other people to compare points to the winner's as a percentage, so the current one is:

25  -  18  -  15 -  12 -  10  - 8   -  6  -   4  -  2  - 1
100% 72% 60% 48% 40% 32% 24% 16% 8% 4%

Yours gives:
15  -  10 -   8  -  7  -   6  -  5  -   4  -  3  -   2  -  1
100% 67% 53% 47% 40% 33% 27% 20% 13% 7%

So it benefits lower scores more relatively, but less for 2nd - 5th places.
True, when you do it on percentages it isn't so great. But the reason I'd prefer that is that 7 points covers the top 3, instead of the current 10. And like @Chadwick8505 said, 7 points over 2nd is a big bonus, and it really penalises a retirement. Gonna do another table in a minute of this years WDC so far with my points system.

Edit: This is with my points.


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VetteIfan said:
VetteIfan said:
I've just done some basic statistics workings out and here's what I've found.
- Mercedes should probably wrap up the constructors' title next time out at Suzuka
- Only Red Bull can take that constructors' title away from Mercedes
- Hamilton, Rosberg, Ricciardo, Alonso, Vettel and Bottas are the only drivers who can mathematically still win the title
- Marcus Ericsson could win the next five races and finish 4th in the drivers' championship
- Caterham could acheive 1-2's at the next five races and finish 3rd in the constructors' championship
There's 258 points still available and they're 174 ahead of Red Bull. So unless Red Bull have a complete disaster, I'd say it is very unlikely that Mercedes will wrap up the WCC in Suzuka. It's only a matter of time after that though, obviously. 
(5+1) x 43 = 258
479 - 305 = 174
258 - 174 = 84

84 - 43 = 41

41 - 43 = -2
Therefore, Mercedes can win the constructors at Suzuka, providing that they take a maximum score, 43, and Red Bull score no more than 2 pts.
So yeah, exactly what I said. Unless Red Bull have a complete disaster, it probably won't happen in Suzuka :p

It'll take at least 2 if not 3 races to wrap that up I think depending on any reliability or crash related issues
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It really doesn't matter how you do the points scoring thing. If you lose 10 points due to a retirement from the lead in one season, it's just the same as losing 25 points for a win in another season. It's all relative to the rest of the positions. That fact is proved through all these different scoring systems that people have come up with - the result is still always Hamilton narrowly leading Rosberg. 

A scoring idea that I do find interesting is to have points all the way down to last place. Obviously this means the points for a win would have to start off quite high to gradually get lower 21 times, but it would always means drivers are always fighting for something. Not only would a fight like Marrusia vs Caterham be more exciting, but it's also more fair. Before this year when none of them ever scored points it would be decided by who did the best overall job in all the races and not who just got one fluky 11th/12th place finish. 




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VetteIfan said:
It really doesn't matter how you do the points scoring thing. If you lose 10 points due to a retirement from the lead in one season, it's just the same as losing 25 points for a win in another season. It's all relative to the rest of the positions. That fact is proved through all these different scoring systems that people have come up with - the result is still always Hamilton narrowly leading Rosberg. 

A scoring idea that I do find interesting is to have points all the way down to last place. Obviously this means the points for a win would have to start off quite high to gradually get lower 21 times, but it would always means drivers are always fighting for something. Not only would a fight like Marrusia vs Caterham be more exciting, but it's also more fair. Before this year when none of them ever scored points it would be decided by who did the best overall job in all the races and not who just got one fluky 11th/12th place finish. 




I think they have a points system like that in Indycar not sure they'd ever incorporate it into F1 though but you never know.
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