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Weather forecasts

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This year the weather forecasts seem to be off by so much that it must be a design choice. Sometimes the pre-race forecasts give three drops of rain for the entire race, but it doesn't rain all race. Other times it can show an overcast dry weather but it rains all race.

There must be some probabilities in this randomness. Do they change on track-by-track basis? Will an overcast Spa have a higher probability for rain than overcast Melbourne?

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If it’s by design it’s a good choice because it feels more realistic like that. See what happens in Barcelona and even Spa this year.

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7 hours ago, RS Phil said:

If it’s by design it’s a good choice because it feels more realistic like that. See what happens in Barcelona and even Spa this year.

No argument from me there. It's good, but I'd like to know how it works.

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It works like the name suggests : it’s a forecast not a pure truth and this makes the race more difficult to predict. This is the way it goes IRL too.

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23 minutes ago, RS Phil said:

It works like the name suggests : it’s a forecast not a pure truth and this makes the race more difficult to predict. This is the way it goes IRL too.

I know how weather forecasts work - or don't. IRL weather forecast are more unreliable in Spa than in Australia, and my question was whether this is the case in the game as well.

Edited by janbonator

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1 hour ago, janbonator said:

I know how weather forecasts work - or don't. IRL weather forecast are more unreliable in Spa than in Australia, and my question was whether this is the case in the game as well.

It is, as the name suggest it's just a forecast with lots of randomness mixed-in like in real life.

The whole weather system in the game is believed to be based on real life data, for example some tracks like Bahrain will never rain, while weather on tracks like Singapore is ever-changing and so unpredictable that the forecast is very unreliable that you should always be prepare for chaos.

I really like this weather system, probably one of the more refine features of the game. I do wish they improve the mechanics of the racing line on wet condition to make it more realistic though.

Edited by DRTApophis
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Yes each track has a percentage of rain chance based on their real life situation. Then as you noted the forecast can and will be different to what goes on the circuit. 

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I posted a few weeks ago about this. It's not the forecasts that are at fault. The weather in Practice and qualy, where it gives you a now, and 5, 10, 20 minutes time, the now has quite often been wrong. To the point where I put on inters, as I can see it's raining, and I get a warning when I try to start a session that my tyres are unsuitable. If I wait, then it eventually let's me go out. 

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I just did the Chinese GP on my team career, 100% race length. The forecast showed partly cloudy then sunshine towards the end. About lap 25 it started to rain, switched to inters on lap 30, and the track went dry with about 15 laps to go.

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On 9/5/2020 at 10:23 PM, janbonator said:

This year the weather forecasts seem to be off by so much that it must be a design choice. Sometimes the pre-race forecasts give three drops of rain for the entire race, but it doesn't rain all race. Other times it can show an overcast dry weather but it rains all race.

There must be some probabilities in this randomness. Do they change on track-by-track basis? Will an overcast Spa have a higher probability for rain than overcast Melbourne?

For me, every time if I look at pre race forecast and then go to race it rains about 30 minutes before pre race forecast says and it happens every time and had this in 2019 version too, gets tired very quickly as it happens way to regularly.

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The weather forecast during practices and qualys is sometimes really bugged or wrong, sometimes in the session time screen I get a "clear and dry sunny" in the current, +5 minutes, +10 minutes, etc weather all while is pouring for a full wet tyre 

Edited by Erudain

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