Jump to content Jump to content

the math behind the driver stats in F1 2021 - revealed


Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

Hi all,

so, Codemasters / EA have revealed their (debateable) driver stats for F1 2021 here (interestingly enough on the official FIA F1 website):

https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.revealed-discover-your-favourite-drivers-official-rating-in-the-new-f1-2021.H1aUDacRLzPiwvNRrIw2z.html

And, did you always wonder, how that mysterious "OVERALL" rating of all drivers was calculated? So did I. On the website it says about that overall stat: "OVERALL - Which takes into account all of the above, calculated with a weigthed average". Hmmm. Since I am not too good at math, I asked my 8 year old son (our little math professor in the family 🙂) if he wanted to find out, making an excel sheet with his dad. So we did. We took a bit more than an hour to type in all stats and find factors that make the whole table work with ALL the drivers. This is the formula for the calculated value in line #12 (Hamilton) >>> =((E12*F12)+(G12*H12)+(I12*J12)+(K12*L12))/4 Please note that the table has not been sorted by teams, since my son wanted to pick the order of the drivers we calculate with, first. He is a big Lewis Hamilton fan, so Lewis had to be first!

It might not be 100% accurate, but we think it came close enough to reveal it to the F1 community. Here you go, enjoy (you can click the image to enlarge it), and feel free to prove us wrong 😄 

F1 2021 Excel sheet.jpg

Edited by Schneehase
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

I have found another solution on Facebook without the hidden factor. 

This seems quiet easy but it makes sense. In this theory the pace factor is more important for the overall value than the others.  But look at yourself.

But I didn't prove if its fits to all the other driver values. 

Screenshot_20210708-231416_Samsung Internet.jpg

Link to post
Share on other sites

But the real question is if the values really effect what they stand for. In case of bottas I am a bit unsure. The pace is clearly below than Hamiltons but in the most time he is faster, in Qualifying and race. So maybe there are hidden values or the high rated awareness factor has a lot more effect on lap pace than the pace factor itself. 

Does 99 in awareness means that driver in front really (almost) makes no mistakes anymore? Like having a bad traction and a unsafe rear in the end of a turn ?  Does anyone notice that? I haven't driven that often behind bottas in f1 2020 😄

If it Is like that I am a bit worried about f1 2021 because there are some more drivers with 99 awareness, who could outperform their teammates. 😄

This is not another "bottas is op" thread, just a discussion about the math of driver stats and its effect. 

Edited by DonBlanko
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, DonBlanko said:

But the real question is if the values really effect what they stand for

How should we ever know? It might well be that these values are optics only, and that the car driven gives all the in game results. We will never know unless Codemasters would reveal that, or if the implemented another (open, editor based) system for driver stats.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, DonBlanko said:

But the real question is if the values really effect what they stand for. In case of bottas I am a bit unsure. The pace is clearly below than Hamiltons but in the most time he is faster, in Qualifying and race. So maybe there are hidden values or the high rated awareness factor has a lot more effect on lap pace than the pace factor itself. 

Does 99 in awareness means that driver in front really (almost) makes no mistakes anymore? Like having a bad traction and a unsafe rear in the end of a turn ?  Does anyone notice that? I haven't driven that often behind bottas in f1 2020 😄

If it Is like that I am a bit worried about f1 2021 because there are some more drivers with 99 awareness, who could outperform their teammates. 😄

This is not another "bottas is op" thread, just a discussion about the math of driver stats and its effect. 

It should be nigh impossible to determine all the factors that go into comparing any two drivers over any given race weekend(s).

For example, if one has a bad qualifying then they'll generally always be behind their teammate in the race as they have to navigate traffic.

One could have a technical issue that causes them to be slow for a few laps.

One could have damage that you can't see without looking closely but is costing them a tenth or two every lap. 

Poor strategy could come into play, like pitting at the same time as someone else and losing 2 seconds waiting for them to drive past your pitbox.

Engine wear over a season could be different. For example, Lewis could have an old engine and Valtteri has a new one and therefore Lewis will look slower as his engine provides less performance.

One could have been in a battle with a different driver for a while and it caused excess tyre and engine wear whereas the other has been in clear air.

One could be using ERS/Fuel differently (this shouldn't impact too much this year)

There are so many other factors that would affect how races occur that it is just pure guesswork to what happens.  You can obviously see trends of someone being better, but it's hard to pinpoint the exact reason.

 

Regarding your query on awareness, it's hard to say.  I'd imagine there'd never be a driver who doesn't make a single mistake over a season, even with a 99 stat. It's just the ratio of the chance that they'll make one. For example, a 23 lap season; someone with a 99 rating will make, on average, 1 mistake a season. If someone has an 85 rating then they'll make 2-3 a season. Someone with a 50 rating could make 5-6 a season. Most the time, the mistakes could be really small and they lose 2-3 tenths by riding a kerb so you won't notice unless you're right behind them or it may be slightly bigger where they clip a wall at Monaco where you would notice it happen as they'd have to pit for damage. It's basically just a consistency rating. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...